India plans to collect a record harvest of wheat and actively buys it for the state reserve

Experts of the Karnal Indian Barley and Wheat Research Institute predict that the country will harvest a record 114 million tons of wheat this season.

This will be facilitated by good weather conditions, an increase in the sowing area by 1 million hectares to 34 million hectares, of which 60% will be sown with high-yielding and climate-resistant varieties (DBW 296, DBW 327, DBW 332, DBW 303, DBW 187, DBW 222, WH1270 and PBW 771), prolonged winter period and absence of pest and disease attacks.

Currently, the average yield of wheat is 3.4-3.5 t/ha, and if this indicator does not decrease, the total production may even reach 119 million tons, experts believe.

We will remind that in 2021 the wheat harvest in India amounted to 109.59 million tons, in 2022 due to the heat it decreased to 107.74 million tons, and in 2023 it reached a record 110.55 million tons. The government of the country predicts that in 2024 114 million tons will be collected.

USDA experts in the April balance of demand and supply left the forecast for wheat production in India in 2024/25 at the level of 110.55 million tons (104 million tons last year), but increased the consumption forecast from 111 to 113 million tons (108.7 million tons last year ). At the same time, they do not forecast the export of wheat from the country, although last year it reached 5.3 million tons. If the wheat harvest really increases, the stocks will not decrease, and the export potential will be quite high.

According to FCI, the Indian government has already purchased 19.61 million tons of local wheat for the state reserve, while the minimum requirement is 18.4 million tons. The pace of purchases is 10% lower than last year due to a 10-day delay in harvesting in the states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

Thus, in Punjab, where it is planned to collect a record 13 million tons of wheat, 9 million tons of Haryana have already been purchased for reserves - 6.12 of the planned 7 million tons, in Madhya Pradesh - 3.46 of 8 million tons.

In general, in 2024/25 MR, the government plans to purchase 30-31 million tons of wheat for the state reserve, while in 2023/24 MR, it purchased 26.2 million tons of grain.