Fertilizer imports grew by 13% in Q1, but prospects are bleak

In the 1st quarter of 2026, fertilizer imports to Ukraine increased by 13% compared to the same period last year, Infoindustry reports.

 

A significant increase in nitrogen fertilizer imports compensated for the sharp decline in NPK imports by increasing supplies of nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea from Nigeria, as well as sulfate from China.

 

If in December traders expected an excess of supply and increased competition, then in March the situation changed dramatically, as prices almost doubled and products became scarce.

Table of imports by type of fertilizers, 1st quarter 2025-2026.

 

View	2026	2025
N	693	539
NPK	204	258
NP	168	167
S	53	26
K	27	24
RK	13	12
P	12	11
Ca+P	7	7
IN	2	0
In total, thousand tons	1178	1045

 

According to experts, as of April 1, the shortage of NPK is at least 100 thousand tons, and of phosphorus-containing fertilizers - 70-80 thousand tons. The war in Iran and the ban on the export of phosphorus fertilizers from China are increasing the shortage on the market, but the situation is unlikely to improve by the end of the year.

 

Since the start of hostilities on February 28, urea production has decreased by at least 2.3 million tons. In the Persian Gulf, about 1 million tons of urea still remains on ships that, as of April 8, had not passed the Strait of Hormuz.

After the announcement of a “two-week truce” between the US and Iran, urea prices decreased slightly - on April 8, US futures fell by more than 6%.

 

The market awaits an assessment of production losses and the likely timing of the restoration of supplies from the Middle East.

Despite reduced demand in most markets, global supply remains limited, and an improvement in the balance is possible if exports from China resume.