IGC again increases forecasts for global grain production, consumption and stocks

In its monthly report released on September 18, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for the production of all cereals (wheat and feed grains) in the 2025/26 MY by 8 million tons compared to its August estimates, which would be 87 million tons or 4% higher than last season.

 

Thanks to a record harvest of 2.412 billion tons, for the first time in history, total grain supply will reach a record 3 billion tons, despite unusually low opening stocks.

 

According to IGC estimates, wheat production in 2025/25 MY will be 819 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY by 2.5%, and corn production will be 1.297 billion tons, which will exceed the last season's harvest by 5%.

 

Total grain trade is expected to increase by 15 million tons compared to the previous season to 438 million tons, which would be the second largest figure in history.

 

Global grain consumption is also set to reach a record 2.395 million tonnes, 4.2 million tonnes above the August forecast. Compared to the previous season, consumption is set to increase by 50.1 million tonnes, including increases for food, feed and industrial purposes.

 

The forecast for world grain stocks has been increased by 9 million tons to 606 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY indicator by 17 million tons, in particular, for ending wheat stocks - by 6 million tons to 270 million tons, which corresponds to the level of last season.

 

According to the IGC, global soybean production will remain stable at 429 million tonnes as growth in South America offsets declines elsewhere.

 

“Total soybean consumption, however, is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year as feed, food and industrial segments ramp up processing to capacity,” the IGC said. “After a strong increase last year, stocks could be reduced. A record trade volume of 185 million tonnes is forecast, supported by stronger demand in Asia.”

 

The IGC also forecasts that global rice production will reach a record 544 million tonnes, “with population growth trends leading to a new peak in consumption.” Rice trade will grow by 2% year-on-year, with India accounting for 40% of total trade.

 

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index was virtually unchanged from last month, down 4% year-on-year. Rice prices fell 33% over the period, offsetting increases in corn and barley prices.