IGC lowers 2026/27 global harvest forecast to second-largest after last year's record

Experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) have again lowered the forecast for global grain production in the 2026/27 MY by 6 million tons to 2.415 billion tons, in particular the harvest of wheat and corn, due to the prolonged heat wave prevailing in Europe.

The estimate for global wheat production has been reduced by 4 million tons to 817 million tons, and corn production by 1 million tons to 1.305 billion tons. Despite this, the total grain harvest could be the second largest in history, although it will be 3% lower than last season's record level.

According to the IGC forecast, world grain trade in 2026/27 MY will decrease by 3.5% to 451 million tons, with the largest decline in wheat trade — by approximately 13 million tons. One of the main reasons for this is the problems with Black Sea exports: deep-sea shipments from Ukraine and the Russian Federation have virtually stopped, which is why the world market has been short of about 4 million tons of wheat since mid-July.

Against the backdrop of reduced production and stable consumption, global ending grain stocks could decrease by 4.5% to 606 million tons. At the same time, global soybean production, thanks to good harvests in the USA and Brazil, could reach a record 441 million tons, and trade could reach 190 million tons.

Rising weather and geopolitical risks are already being reflected in prices. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) is up 3% since the July report and 14% since August last year to a near two-year high, with wheat and soybeans up 16% year-over-year.