The IGC has lowered its forecast for global grain production in FY 2022/23, in particular corn
In the August report, IGC experts reduced the forecast of world grain production in 2022/23 MR by 4 million tons to 2.248 billion tons compared to July estimates, which, although it will be 2% less than the 2021/22 MR indicator, but will be the second largest harvest in the entire history of observations.
World production of corn will decrease the most in the current season. Thus, in the August report, its estimate was reduced from 1.188 to 1.178 billion tons, which will be 41 million tons less than in 2021/22 MR, when 1.219 billion tons were collected. In particular, for the EU, the forecast for the corn harvest was reduced from 68.3 to 59 .6 million tons (70.3 million tons in 2021/22 MR), and for the USA - from 368.4 to 364.7 (383.9) million, while for Ukraine it was increased from 25.1 to 27.7 ( 42.1) million tons.
The forecast for the world export of corn was increased from 169.3 to 173.3 (179.1) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - from 12 to 15.5 (23.5) million tons, while for the USA the export estimate was reduced from 61 to 60 .3 (64) million tons.
The forecast of world trade in grain was increased by 3 million tons to 409 million tons compared to 424 million tons in 2021/22, in particular, the import of corn to the EU will increase significantly.
It is also expected that compared to the previous season, the transitional stocks of corn, wheat, barley and sorghum in 2022/23 MR will decrease by 4% to an 8-year low of 577 million tons, the wheat harvest will decrease by 3 million tons to 778 million tons, and the world soybean production will grow by 11% to a record 389 million tons, primarily thanks to the recovery of production in South America.
The volume of consumption of soybeans will grow by 8% to a record 379 million tons against the background of increased consumption of processed products for feed, as well as in food and industry. Temporary stocks of soybeans will also grow significantly.
Rice production in 2022/23 will decline from the previous season to 514 million tons due to poor harvests in India and some other countries, while consumption will reach a record level and carryover stocks will decrease by 3 million tons.
