IGC sharply raised forecasts for global production of all grains, including wheat, and soybeans

In their August report, experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) raised their forecast for global grain production (wheat and feed grains) in 2025/26 MY by 27 million tons compared to their July estimates to 2,404 million tons, which is 3.6% higher than the 2024/25 MY (2,321 million tons). In particular, forecasts for the US corn harvest and global wheat, sorghum, and oats production were sharply increased.

The forecast for world grain consumption is increased by 15 million tonnes to 2,391 million tonnes (2% higher than last season's 2,342 million tonnes), as lower feed grain prices will boost demand. The trade forecast (July/June) is increased by 7 million tonnes to 437 (425) million tonnes. Given the increase in production and opening stocks, the forecast for world ending stocks of all grains in 2025/26MY is increased by 16 million tonnes to 597 million tonnes, 13 million tonnes higher than this season's figure.

The forecast for global wheat production has been increased by 3 million tonnes to 811 million tonnes (which will exceed the previous harvest of 800 million tonnes by 1.38%), and the consumption estimate has been increased by 2 million tonnes to 816 million tonnes (804 million tonnes in 2024/25 MY). At the same time, against the background of a decrease in opening stocks, the forecast for global ending stocks of wheat in 2025/26 MY has been reduced by 1 million tonnes to 264 million tonnes, compared to 269 million tonnes in 2024/25 MY and 273 million tonnes in 2023/24 MY.

The forecast for global corn production has been increased by 23 million tonnes to 1,299 million tonnes, which is 5.3% higher than in the 2024/25 MY (1,234 million tonnes). The estimate for corn consumption has been increased by only 13 million tonnes to 1,285 million tonnes (1,249 million tonnes last year), as a result of which the forecast for global ending stocks has increased by 16 million tonnes to 294 million tonnes, which is already 14 million tonnes higher than in the 2024/25 MY.

The forecast for world soybean production in the 2025/26 MY has been increased by 2 million tons to 430 million tons (which will exceed the previous season's figure of 425 million tons by 1.2%), and its consumption by 1 million tons to 430 million tons (412 million tons this season), but due to the increase in initial stocks, the forecast for ending world soybean stocks in the 2025/26 MY has been increased by 2 million tons to 85 million tons, which will be slightly lower than the 86 million tons of the current season.

After growth in the previous calendar year, global trade is expected to decline in 2026. Egypt will be by far the largest importer of soybeans during the forecast period.

The rice supply and demand balance for the 2024/25 MY is largely unchanged from the July estimate. Rice stocks are expected to increase by about 7 million tonnes year-on-year, mainly due to a build-up in India. The outlook for the 2025/26 MY is also largely unchanged, with supply and consumption likely to be at record levels. With slightly lower carryovers, aggregate stocks are expected to fall by 1 million tonnes month-on-month.

Thanks to rising export prices for soybeans and corn, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) strengthened slightly year-on-year, remaining unchanged compared to last year.