IGC predicts 9% increase in global sunflower production in 2025/26 MY, but prices in Ukraine are rising due to uncertainty with the new harvest

In Ukraine, there is increased demand for sunflower, which supports prices at 26,500-27,000 UAH/t delivered to the factory (for 50% oil content) against the background of limited supply from farmers, which is holding back sales on forecasts of a decrease in the sunflower harvest due to drought in the south and east of Ukraine.

At the same time, export prices for sunflower oil remain at $1,100-1,120/t with delivery to ports, amid increasing supply from Argentina and forecasts of increased global production in the new season.

In Ukraine, slight precipitation and moderate temperatures are expected in the next 7-10 days, which will improve the condition of crops and harvest prospects.

IGC experts predict that in 2025/26, global sunflower production will increase by 9% compared to the previous season to 56.6 million tonnes due to good harvests in Eastern Europe and the EU. Sunflower production in the EU is expected to increase by 14% from 8.3 to 9.4 million tonnes, in the Russian Federation by 8% to 18.3 million tonnes, and in Ukraine by 11% to 14.5 million tonnes, but will be less than the 16.5 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season.

The US and Turkey will increase production significantly more. According to USDA estimates, Turkey has increased its sunflower sowing area by 40% compared to last year, which will allow it to increase production by 49% to 800 thousand tons, but this will not significantly affect global supplies.

In Argentina, the world's third-largest sunflower producer, the harvest will decrease by 7% to 4.7 million tons due to a reduction in sowing areas.

In the Russian Federation, sunflower sowing areas increased by 941 thousand hectares to 11.39 million hectares, so local analysts predict a harvest of 19-20 million tons.