The IGC predicts a sharp decrease of wheat production in 2018/19 Mr
According to the first forecast balance IGC wheat in 2018/19 MG, world wheat production in comparison with the current season will be reduced by 2.3% to 741 million tons, which is 1.8% lower than in the 2016/17 season.
Russia's harvest will decrease by 10.4 million tonnes to 74.5 million tonnes, which will be the most significant reduction among the major countries-producers of wheat.
the Volume of world wheat trade will grow by 2.8% to 179 million tonnes Despite production cuts, Russia will increase exports of wheat, 800 thousand tons to 37.1 million tonnes. the United States will increase wheat exports by 1.3 million tonnes to 26.5 million tonnes and the EU by 2.6 million tonnes to 26.8 million tonnes, exclusively due to export of wheat.
World wheat consumption will increase by 0.2% to 744 million tonnes.
World ending stocks of wheat will fall to 253 million tonnes, which is 1.2% lower than in 2017/18 MG and 0.4% MG figure 2016/17.
Ending stocks of wheat by leading exporting countries (Argentina, USA, Australia, EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Russia) will be reduced by 15.4 per cent to 66 million tonnes, which is 13.2% worse than the stock level of the 2016/17 season.
In Russia, ending stocks will be reduced by 3.5 million tons to 12.2 million tons in the U.S. – 5.4 million tonnes to 22.7 million tonnes, the EU by 2.6 million tonnes to 14.7 million tonnes (including wheat by 2.2 million tonnes to 12.3 million tonnes).
In Paris, the wheat of new crop with delivery in September traded at 167,5 €/t 4 €/t higher may futures. In Chicago July futures traded at 173,4 $/t 6 $/t more expensive for may delivery.
In Ukraine, the forward prices for wheat with protein 11.5% and 12.5% of the amount in the port 175-180 $/t for deliveries in July-August, while for delivery in April and may traders offer 187-180 $/t