IGC raised its forecast for world grain production for 2025/26 MY and lowered it for 2026/27 MY

In their April report, IGC experts increased the forecast for global grain production in 2025/26 MY by 4 million tons compared to March estimates to a record 2.474 billion tons (2.329 billion tons in 2024/25 MY), primarily due to an increase in the corn harvest in Argentina.

The consumption forecast has been reduced by 1 million tonnes to 2.422 (2.351) billion tonnes, as the decrease in wheat consumption in India will only be partially offset by an increase in corn consumption for feed.

Due to increased supply and reduced consumption, the forecast for ending stocks has been increased by 6 million tons to 638 (586) million tons. And the estimate of world trade has been increased by 2 million tons to 451 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 27 million tons.

Concerns about fertilizer availability and use rates in the 2026/27 MY add to the uncertainty over future crop prospects, particularly in some regions of the Southern Hemisphere, where needs may remain unmet.

Therefore, for the 2026/27 MY, the forecast for world grain production has been reduced by 3 million tons to 2.414 billion tons, in particular, wheat - by 1 million tons to 821 (845) million tons and corn - by 3 million tons to 1.3 (1.324) billion tons. Total production will exceed the 2024/25 MY by 3.6%, but will be 2% lower than the record harvest of the 2025/26 MY.

The forecast for global grain consumption for the 2026/27 MY has been reduced by 3 million tons to 2.437 billion tons, which will exceed the record figure of the 2025/26 MY by 0.6%, and the 2024/25 MY by 3.7%.

Excess consumption over production will lead to a decrease in ending stocks to 615 million tons (638 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 586 million tons in 2024/25 MY), and the volume of world trade will decrease to 448 million tons.

IGC experts have almost not changed the global soybean balance for the 2025/26 MY, only slightly increasing production and consumption forecasts compared to March estimates.

At the same time, in the balance for the 2026/27 MY, the forecast for world soybean production has been reduced by 1 million tons to 441 (428) million tons, which will still be a record level. The consumption forecast has been increased by 2 million tons to 444 (431) million tons, as a result of which the estimate of ending stocks has been reduced by 4 million tons to 75 (78) million tons, which will be 9% lower than the 2024/25 MY figure.

The global rice balance for 2025/26 MY is also almost unchanged, with production, consumption, trade and stocks remaining at record levels. In the 2026/27 MY balance, world rice production is estimated at 548 (544) million tonnes, consumption at 544 (537) million tonnes and stocks at 197 (193) million tonnes, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 5.4%.

Amid stable dynamics in most markets, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by 1% compared to March.