IGC expects record grain consumption, reducing stocks despite high production

The International Grains Council (IGC) revised its global grain market outlook for the 2025/26 marketing year in a July report. While the forecast for global production remained at a record level, analysts raised their consumption estimates, resulting in a reduction in expected carryover stocks.

 

Grain production is expected at 2,376 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes less than in the June report, but 2.6% higher than in the 2024/25 MY (2,316 million tonnes). The adjustment is due to a decrease in barley and sorghum yields.

 

World grain consumption has been revised upwards by 3 million tons to 2,378 million tons, which is not only higher than the previous estimate, but also 1.6% higher than last season's figure (2,340 million tons).

As a result, ending grain stocks are reduced by 4 million tons, to 582 million tons. However, this is still 1 million tons higher than in the 2024/25 MY.

 

Wheat: stable balances with a slight decrease in stocks

IGC maintained its forecast for wheat production at 808 million tons , which is 1% higher than last year's volume (800 million tons).
Expected consumption is 814 million tons (versus 802 million tons), so the deficit remains.
As a result, wheat stocks were reduced by 1 million tons , to 265 million tons , compared to 270 million tons a year earlier.

 

Corn: demand is growing faster than production

World corn production was left unchanged at 1,276 million tons , which is 4% more than in the 2024/25 MY (1,228 million tons).
Corn consumption increased by 3 million tons , to 1,272 million tons (1,247 million tons a year ago).
This led to a decrease in the forecast for reserves by 4 million tons , to 278 million tons , which is still 3 million tons higher than this year.

 

Other crops: balance stable, but prices fluctuate

Estimates for rice and soybeans were virtually unchanged. At the same time, soybean and rice stocks were increased by 1 million tons of each crop, against the backdrop of stable production and adjusted figures from the previous season.

 

Market prices: corn and soybeans push the index up

Thanks to the increase in FOB prices for corn and soybeans , which offset the decline in quotations for wheat and rice, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) increased by 1% over the month .

However, in annual terms, the index decreased by 3.4% , which was mainly due to a sharp drop in rice prices - by 32% , despite the increase in corn prices at double-digit rates.