The hryvnia is strengthening in anticipation of an increase in foreign exchange earnings from agricultural producers

Weather conditions in Ukraine contribute to the formation of a good harvest of grain and oilseeds, which will support the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar on the interbank market for the next 1-2 months.

This year, the grain harvest in Ukraine will grow by 10-15% compared to last year, and prices for agricultural products on the world market are much higher. The rapeseed harvest may be slightly lower than last year, but due to a 40-50% increase in the price of it, the volume of foreign exchange earnings from the sale of rapeseed and barley, which begin to be exported in July, will increase significantly.

On the interbank market, the dollar exchange rate after a speculative jump on Thursday to 27.53-27.56 UAH/. on Friday decreased by 20 kopecks/., and on Monday – by another 15 kopecks/. to 27.18-27.20 UAH/..

The next auction for the placement of government bonds almost did not affect the exchange rate, as the volume of borrowings sharply decreased compared to the previous auction.

The Ministry of finance at the auction on June 29 raised UAH 2.532 billion to the budget due to the sale of the following government bonds:

• until 29.09.21 at 8.50% in the amount of UAH 117 million,
• until 20.07.22 at 10.99% in the amount of UAH 744 million,
• until 23.11.22 at 11.30% in the amount of UAH 203 million,
• until 24.05.23 at 12% in the amount of UAH 511 million,
• until 22.05.24 at 12.30% in the amount of UAH 76 million,
• until 13.05.26 at 12.59% in the amount of UAH 554 million,
• until 26.05.27 at 12.73% in the amount of UAH 327 million.

Analysts predict that in the coming months, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar will remain at the level of 27 UAH/. and will depend on the ability of the National Bank to level out sharp speculative jumps, as it was last Thursday.