A good harvest is putting pressure on wheat prices

2019-08-19 12:06:28
Machine translation
A good harvest is putting pressure on wheat prices

wheat Harvest in the United States and Russia coming to an end, and in Ukraine and France has been completed and preliminary data confirm the predictions of production, reducing the speculative pressure on prices. However, in the following months the price will depend on the activity of importers and the corn harvest in the United States.


In Russia as of 16 August, from 15.1 million hectares, or 53.9% of squares produced 53.7 million tonnes of wheat with a yield of 3.55 t/ha (in 2018 to 3.44 t/ha). Experts Refinitiv increased the forecast of wheat production to 74 million tonnes In the week the country exported 700 tons of wheat, and from the beginning of the season to 5.1 million tons, which is 11% less than the previous year.


Sellers keep the market in anticipation of rising prices and offer for the September deliveries of wheat protein 12,5% 192-196 issued $/t FOB Novorossiysk, but the buyers do not agree to the price above 190 $/t FOB.


In Ukraine, as of August 16, with 99% of the area harvested 28.2 million tons of wheat with a yield of 4.19 MT/ha, which is inferior to the projected in August experts USDA 29 million tons Purchasing prices for milling wheat remain at the level of 172 and 173 $/t, while feed prices have fallen to 168-170 $/t CPT.


France finished harvesting the wheat crop which amounted to 38-39 million tons, as expected, that is a bearish factor for the market. However, prices have supported the fall of the Euro to two-week low, Friday's speculative growth of Chicago and experts increase Strategie Grains forecast wheat exports.


  • September futures for milling wheat on MATIF remained at 168 €/t or 186,55 $/t


the Strengthening of the dollar affects the export prospects for us wheat. However, investors continue to close short positions.


the September wheat futures in the U.S.:

1.65 $/t to 144,86 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

1.29 $/t to 186,01 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 0.64 $/t to 172,97 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago