A good sunflower harvest will allow the Russian Federation to increase supplies of sunflower oil to India

Sunflower prices in Ukraine continue to fall, as the Russian Federation increases production of sunflower oil and pushes Ukraine out of its traditional markets.

According to the estimates of the IKAR agency, in 2024, compared to the previous year, the Russian Federation increased the production of rapeseed from 4.2 to 4.7 million tons, soy - from 6.8 to 6.9 million tons, but reduced the production of sunflower from 17.4 to 15.8 million tons, while the production of flax remained at the level of 2023 - 1.2 million tons.

According to the estimates of the Association of Sunflower Oil Producers of India, next year the country will reduce the import of sunflower oil compared to 2024 from 3.5 to 3.2 million tons, of which 50% or 1.6 million tons will be supplied from the Russian Federation. India also plans to purchase 200,000 tons of soybean oil from the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the increase in the export duty on sunflower oil in the Russian Federation from $29-30/t to $88.5/t increases the competitiveness of Ukrainian and Argentine sunflower oil on the world market.

In FY 2023/24 (which ended on March 31), India imported 3.5 million tonnes of sunflower oil, of which:

• from the Russian Federation - 35.49% or 1.12 million tons,
• from Romania – 29.93% or 946 thousand tons,
• from Argentina – 18.24% or 576 thousand tons,
• from Ukraine – 8.81% or 278 thousand tons,
• from Turkey – 5.71% or 180 thousand tons,
• from Bulgaria – 1% or 34 thousand tons.

According to the SovEkon center, sunflower prices in the European part of the Russian Federation fell by 550 rubles/t to 40,625 rubles/t last week amid reduced demand from processors and a drop in export prices for Russian sunflower oil by $5/t to $1,110 /t FOB and for soybeans - by $13/t to $1,145/t FOB.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for sunflower oil for delivery to Black Sea ports last week also fell by $20-25/t to $1,100/t, but traders cut back on purchases due to uncertainty over the subsequent dynamics of vegetable oil prices. However, rising palm oil prices, which have already exceeded $1,160/t, will boost demand for sunflower oil from Indian buyers.