Good US weather and harvests in Argentina and Australia put pressure on December wheat futures

Global wheat prices remain under pressure from harvests in Australia and Argentina, where production forecasts are improving, as well as heavy snowfall in the US Plains, which replenishes moisture and protects crops with up to 1.5m of snow.

ABARES raised its forecast for Australia's wheat harvest in FY2024/25 to 31.9 million tonnes, which would be in line with the USDA forecast and 23% higher than FY2023/24.

According to the MSG of India, as of November 29, 20 million hectares were sown with wheat in the country, which is 6.6% more than last year. Increased production will help lower prices, which reached record levels in the previous season.

Yesterday, December wheat futures rose slightly:

• by 1% to $197.5/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+0.3% for the week),
• by 0.6% to $192.5/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (-4.3%).
• by 1% to €211.5/t or $221.75/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+1.3%).

At the same time, futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis fell by 2.3% to $205.8/t (-3.7%).

Exports of wheat from the USA for the week decreased by 19% to 296.1 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 10.98 million tons, which is 31.8% ahead of last year's pace. The high rate of exports increases the pressure on quotations. In the second half of the season, exports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation will decrease, but the market will be supported by deliveries from Argentina and Australia.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), in 2024/25 FY Canada increased the export of soft wheat by 1% to 6.3 million tons and durum wheat by 53% to 1.3 million tons compared to the corresponding period of the previous season. .

Ukraine exported 9 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 financial year (as of December 2), compared to 5.925 million tons in the corresponding period last year, the State Customs Service reports.

The export demand prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports are:

• food - 9700-10000 UAH/t or 209-212 $/t,
• fodder - UAH 9400-9450/t or $202-204/t.

In 5 months of the current season, the Russian Federation exported a record 25.3 million tons of wheat, which was 1.7 million tons more than the corresponding figure of the previous season.