Rapeseed futures in Paris immediately collapsed by 5% after a speculative rise

As we predicted , the speculative growth in rapeseed quotes in Paris was very rapid and not based on fundamental factors, so February futures have collapsed by 5% since Monday.

The 8% drop in soybean and soybean oil quotes in Chicago and palm oil in Malaysia since the beginning of the week is also putting pressure on the rapeseed and rapeseed oil market.

On the Paris exchange, February rapeseed futures fell 3.2% yesterday to €520.75/t or $540.5/t (-5% since the beginning of the week, -4.3% for the month), and May futures fell 4.7% to €506.75/t (-5.7% for the month) since Monday.

According to the European Commission, in the 2024/25 MY (as of December 16), EU countries increased their rapeseed imports by 3% compared to the corresponding period of the previous season to 2.7 million tons, of which 1.9 million tons were supplied from Ukraine, 500 thousand tons from Australia and 100 thousand tons from Canada. The main importers were Belgium (918 thousand tons), the Netherlands (706 thousand tons), and Germany (527 thousand tons).

January canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange fell 4.3% to CAD 588/t or $ 407/t since Monday (-7.1% for the month) amid Trump's provocative statements that Canada should become the 51st US state, otherwise high tariffs will be imposed on its goods.

The Canadian dollar fell 3% against the US dollar in the month, increasing the dollar price difference between Canadian canola and European rapeseed to $130/t.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for rapeseed, following world quotes, decreased to $525-530/t or UAH 24,500-25,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but the number of traders continuing purchases has significantly decreased.