US stock indexes and oil prices began to recover after Trump agreed on Greenland

Stock indexes rose 1.16-1.36% on Wednesday, recovering some of Tuesday’s 2-2.5% decline after President Trump announced a framework agreement with NATO on Greenland. Trump’s negotiating tactics of making high demands and then achieving some success with loud “we won” statements are already known to traders as TACO (Trump will always give it back), so the market reaction was very restrained. President Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European countries that oppose his efforts to seize Greenland.

 

According to information from Davos, Denmark will provide the US with some land in Greenland for military bases. But it should be remembered that during the Cold War, NATO had up to 30 military bases there, and now only one American base remains.

 

Oil prices also continued to rise following a sharp rise in US gas prices and expectations of a US attack on Iran.

 

February Nymex natural gas futures (NGG26) have surged 60% to a one-year high since Monday on forecasts of a wave of Arctic weather that will blanket the U.S. over the coming weekend and could threaten U.S. gas production disruptions.

 

According to AccuWeather, a massive Arctic cold front will descend into the US as far as Texas (where key gas production facilities are located), causing temperatures to drop below normal for more than 150 million people in 24 states.

 

Oil prices fell on January 21 as an expected build in U.S. crude inventories outweighed a temporary production halt at two major fields in Kazakhstan and geopolitical pressure from Trump, who is threatening Europe with tariffs in an attempt to gain control of Greenland, Reuters reported .

 

Brent crude futures rose 1.9% to $65.2/barrel on Monday and are trading 6% higher than a month ago, drawing speculative support from a possible US strike on Iran.

 

The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that President Trump is pressing aides for “decisive” military options against Iran, as the country’s authorities have cracked down on protests and killed many protesters. The United States is sending an aircraft carrier strike group to the region, which will reach the Middle East later this week, which could be the start of a major troop buildup if President Trump decides to attack Iran.

 

The cessation of oil supplies from Venezuela and disruptions in supplies from Iran forced China to purchase shipments of Russian oil that India refused to buy under US pressure, which reduced tanker stocks.

 

Fundamental factors of pressure on oil prices remain, as according to the IEA, the global surplus of crude oil in 2026 will be 3.7 million barrels/day, so after speculative jumps, oil prices will still return to decline after the frosts subside and the US's intentions regarding Iran become clearer, although the chance to overthrow the regime has already been lost.