FAS raises soybean harvest forecasts in Argentina

The US Department of Agriculture (FAS) has raised its forecast for Argentina's soybean harvest in the 2024/25 MY to 49 million tons as plantings recover from a drought that lasted until January.

 

Severe drought and heat have negatively affected crops at critical stages of development, reducing yield estimates in major soybean growing regions, but recent rains have been able to improve plant health and restore production forecasts.

 

According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, 17% of soybean crops are in good or excellent condition, and another 49% are in normal condition.

 

FAS experts also increased the estimate of soybean processing in the 2023/24 MY to 43 million tons, while the forecast for the 2024/25 MY is 42 million tons.

 

The forecast for soybean exports in the 2023/24 MY has been increased by 300 thousand tons compared to previous estimates to 5 million tons. It is expected that in the 2024/25 MY, soybean exports will amount to 7 million tons, and soybean meal - 29 million tons.

 

Soybeans and their processed products remain the main items of Argentina's agricultural exports, with soybean meal exports accounting for 11.3% of total shipments. In 2024, despite the decline in world prices, the country increased soybean meal exports by 42% compared to the previous year to $19.05 billion, which compensated for the decrease in soybean and biodiesel exports.

 

Paraguay and Uruguay remain the main suppliers of soybeans to Argentine processors, while China is the largest buyer of Argentine soybeans, accounting for 85% of total soybean exports. However, China has significantly reduced its imports of Argentine soybeans in recent months and may continue this trend in the near future.

 

According to the FAS forecast, sunflower production will amount to 4 million tons, and as of March 11, 11% of the area has already been threshed, which is 28% lower than last year's pace, but 300 thousand tons higher than the corresponding figure last year.

 

Sunflower is strengthening its position as a strategic alternative to soybeans and corn, especially in the country's main agricultural regions, FAS believes.

 

Over the past two months, sunflower trade and processing volumes have increased, so the forecast for sunflower exports has been increased to 1.05 million tons, and processing to 3.8 million tons, which will be slightly lower than the record 4 million tons of the 2022/23 season.