FAO predicts that in 2025, wheat production in Ukraine will be below the 5-year average

FAO experts have made almost no changes to the forecast for world wheat production in 2025 compared to the first estimates in March, leaving it at 795 million tons, which will correspond to the adjusted forecast for 2024.

In Ukraine, wheat production in 2025 will be below the 5-year average due to the consequences of the war and dry weather, which will reduce yields.

Winter wheat plantings in the major wheat-producing countries of the Northern Hemisphere were largely unchanged during the month. In the EU, wheat production is expected to increase by 12% year-on-year to 135.5 million tonnes, driven by increased plantings and improved yields after last year's adverse weather. However, a rainfall deficit in the eastern part of the region could reduce the potential harvest.

In the Russian Federation, wheat production will decrease in 2025 due to a decrease in sown areas and low soil moisture levels.

In the US, wheat production will also decrease, as drought affected crops on a larger area than last year, so yields will be lower.

In Canada, where wheat planting will begin in May, an increase in sown areas is expected amid high prices, but this will be offset by a decrease in yield, so production will be in line with last year's figures, although it will exceed the 5-year average.