The European Commission again lowered the forecasts of the grain and rape harvest in 2024/25 MY, which led to an increase in quotations in Paris

Yesterday, the European Commission cut its forecast for EU crop production again, supporting the Paris stock market, which fell to record lows this week, even despite other agencies' recent forecasts for a lower harvest.

According to the EC forecast, the production of cereals in the EU in 2024/25 MR will decrease compared to the previous season from 269.9 to 264.5 million tons, in particular soft wheat - from 125 to a 4-year minimum of 116.1 million tons (120 .8 million tons in the previous forecast).

The forecast for the export of soft wheat from the EU in 2024/25 FY has been reduced compared to July estimates from 32 to 26 million tons (35.1 million tons in 2023/24 FY).

It will be recalled that other agencies also recently lowered their forecasts for the production and export of common wheat in the EU due to worse than expected yields in France and Germany, where it rained for a long time, and in the eastern regions of the EU, which were affected by drought.

The experts of the European Commission also reduced (compared with July estimates) the forecast of barley production in 2024/25 MR from 52.7 to 51.3 million tons (47.5 million tons in 2023/24 MR) and corn - from 62.9 to 61 .65 (62.7) million tons. The corn harvest will decrease the most in Romania, which used to compete with France for the position of the main producer of corn in the EU, and this year was badly affected by the heat.

The forecast for the rape harvest in the EU in 2024/25 MR has been reduced from 18.4 to 18 million tons, which will be 9.4% less than the 19.7 million tons harvested in 2023/24 MR.

During the week, quotations for rape, wheat and corn on the stock exchange in Paris fell to multi-month lows, so yesterday the EC forecast reacted with growth:

• September wheat futures - by 1.9% to €202.25/t or $224/t (+2.8% for the week, -6.8% for the month),
• November corn futures - up 1% to €198.25/t or $219.56/t (+2.2%, -4.9%),
• November rapeseed futures - up 1.8% to €469.75/t or $520.25/t (+4.4%, -1.4%).