The European Commission lowered its grain production and export forecasts, but EU prices responded by falling.

The European Commission has lowered production forecasts for most agricultural crops in the EU in the 2026/27 MY due to adverse weather, with the largest reduction in estimates for corn, the area under which has also decreased significantly.

Thus, compared to June estimates, harvest forecasts have been reduced:

• soft wheat – from 126.3 to 124.4 million tons (+8% compared to 2025/26 MY), as a result of which the export estimate was reduced from 30 to 29 million tons, and ending stocks – from 13.8 to 12.9 million tons,
• corn – from 59.9 to 51.9 million tons (-14% compared to 2025/26 MY), as a result of which the import estimate was increased from 19.1 to 24 million tons,
• barley – from 51.7 to 51.05 million tons,
• sunflower – from 10.1 to 9.5 million tons (compared to 8.7 million tons in 2025/26 MY).

At the same time, the forecast for rapeseed production was left at last year's level of 20.85 million tons, since the decrease in yield is compensated by an increase in sowing areas.

The European Commission explains the decrease in production forecasts by the reduction in sown areas, high prices for fertilizers and energy, as well as abnormal heat waves, which negatively affected crops in the main producing countries.

A reduction in the harvest, especially corn, may increase the EU's dependence on grain imports in the 2026/27 MY and affect the balance of the European grain market.

However, despite the reduced harvest forecasts, grain futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell on Friday:

• September wheat futures - up 3% to €222.75/t or $255.8/t (-4.5% per week, +10% per month),
• November corn futures - by 1.9% to €242.75/t (-4.9% per week, +7.4% per month),
• November rapeseed futures - by 2.9% to €513/t or $589/t (-7.3% per week, -1.3% per month) under pressure from a sharp increase in offers on the physical market after a jump in quotes to a level above €550/t.