The European Commission lowered the forecasts of the harvest of the main agricultural crops in the EU, but the quotations almost did not react to this

In the October report, the experts of the European Commission significantly reduced the forecasts of the harvest and stocks of all major agricultural crops in the EU in 2024/25 MY, but the quotations did not react to this and continued to fall.

Compared to previous estimates, production forecasts have been reduced:

• of soft wheat - by 1.9 to 112.6 million tons, its export - by 1 to 25 million tons, and stocks - by 1.3 to 10.4 million tons,
• corn - by 2.1 to 58 million tons, and reserves - by 3.5 to 17.4 million tons,
• barley - by 0.7 to 49.8 million tons, stocks - by 0.9 to 3.2 million tons, while the export estimate was left at the level of 10 million tons,
• soybeans - by 0.2 to 2.8 million tons, while the import forecast was increased by 0.6 to 14 million tons,
• sunflower - by 1.4 to 8.1 million tons, and the consumption forecast in the EU was reduced by 1.4 to 8.3 million tons.

At the same time, the durum wheat production forecast was left at 7.2 million tons, imports at 3 million tons, and the estimate of reserves was increased by 0.5 to 1.3 million tons.

Quotations for wheat and corn on the Paris exchange, after strong growth in September, fell during October:

• November corn futures - by 6.3% to €200/t or $218/t (corresponding to the price level at the beginning of September 2024),
• December wheat futures - by 4.8% to €217/t or $236.5/t (corresponding to the price level of September 1, 2024).

During this time, November rapeseed futures rose by 6.8% to €517/t or $564/t (+9.6% in two months) amid a sharp rise in sunflower and vegetable oil prices.