The European Commission lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in the EU in 2024/25 MR to a 4-year low

On April 25, experts of the European Commission reduced the forecast of wheat production in the EU in 2024/25 MR from 120.8 million tons to a 4-year low of 120.2 million tons, as the wheat sowing area will decrease more than previously expected due to heavy rains in Western Europe during autumn and winter period.

At the same time, the European Commission increased the forecast of final stocks of soft wheat in 2024/25 MR from 12.1 to 12.2 million tons, since the reduction in production will be compensated by an increase in stocks in the previous 2023/24 MR, which will amount to 20.4 million tons, and not 19.9 million tons, as previously forecast.

The reason for the adjustment of stocks was the increase in the forecast of wheat imports to the EU in 2023/24 MR from 7.5 to 8 million tons against the background of active supplies from Ukraine. However, as early as 2024/25, wheat imports to the EU will decrease to 4.5 million tons.

The European Commission left the forecasts of wheat exports from the EU in 2023/24 and 2024/25 unchanged at 31 million tons.

Also, compared to previous estimates, the experts of the European Commission reduced the forecast of rapeseed production in the EU in 2024/25 MR by 2% from 19.8 to 19.41 million tons, which will still exceed the average 5-year figure by 10%.