The European Commission lowered the forecast for the EU soft wheat harvest in 2024 to a 12-year low, but prices continued to fall

The European Commission on Thursday lowered the forecast for the EU soft wheat harvest in 2024 to a 12-year low, and raised the forecast for the corn harvest, but quotations of these crops continued to fall.

The forecast for EU common wheat production in 2024/25 FY has been cut from 112.6 to 112.3 million tonnes, 10% below the 2023/24 FY crop and the lowest since 2012/23 FY, as France harvested the worst of 1980s wheat harvest.

Against the background of a decrease in the harvest forecast and an increase in the forecast of wheat consumption in animal feed, the estimate of final stocks in the 2024/25 MR was reduced compared to October from 10.4 to 9.8 million tons. At the same time, the export forecast remained at the level of 25 million tons compared to 35.3 million tons in 2023/24 MR.

The forecast of corn production in the EU has been increased from 58 to 59.6 million tons, which will be 3% less than the 2023/24 FY.

As a result of the increase in the production forecast and the corn import forecast by 0.5 to 19.5 million tons, the estimate of ending stocks in the 2024/25 MR has been increased from October's 17.4 to 19.4 million tons.

The European Commission made the biggest adjustment to the grain production forecast for Romania, followed by France.

The forecast for barley production was left at 49.8 million tons, but the estimate of ending stocks was reduced from 3.2 to 2.6 million tons.

At the Paris MATIF on Friday, December flour wheat futures fell another €1.75/t to €209.5/t or $220.45/t (-4.5% for the week), while March to €221.5/t or $233/t (-4.3% for the week). March corn futures fell by €0.75/t to €200.75/t or $214.4/t (-5.2% for the week).

The strengthening of the euro and strong competition from cheap Black Sea corn is increasing the pressure on quotations.