The European Commission and Strategie Grains have lowered their forecasts for the harvest of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower for the EU

The European Commission predicts that in 2024/25, as a result of the drought in some regions of Europe, the production of grain crops will decrease by 2% compared to the previous season to 279 million tons, in particular soft wheat - by 1% to 127 million tons (which will correspond to an average of 5 -annual indicator), and corn - by 11% to 60 million tons (2% will exceed the average 5-year indicator).

Strategie Grains experts have again lowered their forecasts for the EU rapeseed and sunflower harvest due to adverse weather conditions. The estimate of rapeseed production has been lowered for the third time in a row, this time from 17.8 (in June) to 17.27 million tons, which will be 14% less than last year's harvest. Production in Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Romania will decrease due to both a reduction in the area sown and low yields. In France, as a result of long rains, the rape crop may decrease by 8%. In general, rapeseed harvesting is almost complete in the EU.

The forecast for sunflower production has been lowered for the second time, this time from 10.49 to 9.65 million tons, which will be inferior to last year's 9.8 million tons. Romania, Bulgaria, and to a lesser extent for Hungary.

Last week, the European Commission lowered the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU to 18.38 million tons, and sunflower - to 10.14 million tons, while the forecast for the soybean harvest remained at 2.99 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 4.6%. because the expansion of the sowing area compensates for the decrease in yield.

According to Strategie Grains estimates, despite the increased import forecast, stocks of rapeseed and sunflower in the EU will be limited in FY 2024/25, which may lead to higher prices for these crops.