The EU will reduce the production of rapeseed, Ukraine will increase

2019-05-28 12:04:41
Machine translation
The EU will reduce the production of rapeseed, Ukraine will increase

Organization of grain traders (COCERAL) lowered its estimates of production of oilseeds with the EU in the current year compared with the March forecast from 30.8 to 30.3 million tonnes, down from 32.4 million tonnes last year. Most, from 18.5 to 17.9 million tons reduced production of rapeseed (in 2018 - 19,7 million tons), soybeans – from 2.9 to 2.8 million tonnes (in 2018 to 2.9 million tons). The sunflower crop will grow from 9.4 to 9.6 million tonnes (in 2018 to 9.8 million tonnes).


the Production of rapeseed in the EU will be the lowest since 2007 due to last year's drought and damage of crops by pests. The recent precipitation is unlikely to improve the situation.


it is Expected that France will collect 4 million tonnes of rapeseed, compared with 4.9 million tons in 2018 the acreage under rapeseed in the country this year decreased by 19% to 1.31 million hectares.


Germany will reduce the production of rapeseed in comparison with the previous year by 17% to 3.04 million tonnes due to a substantial reduction in acreage, while Poland will increase from 2.3 million tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes.


the UK has reduced the acreage under rapeseed by almost half. In addition, a large number of crops were damaged by cabbage stem beetle, therefore, the rapeseed crop will be significantly smaller than last year's 2.1 million tons.


the Ukrainian grain Association has increased the forecast of rapeseed production in Ukraine in 2019 to 3.75 million tonnes, vs 2.75 mln tonnes in 2018 and 2,195 million MT in 2017, while the Institute of agroeconomic it is estimated at 3.3 million tonnes. Exports of canola could rise to 3.3 million tons against 2.5 million tons in the current marketing year.


the August rapeseed futures on Euronext yesterday fell 0.25 €/t to 365,5 €/t or 408,84 $/t, and November by 0.5 €/t to 368,5 €/t or 412 $/t. the Quotes remain under pressure from low prices for soybeans and soy oil, palm oil and canadian canola, on which futures in Chicago traded at 449 CAD/t or 334,15 $/t compared to stop exports to China and increase the balance.


in Ukraine In rapeseed for delivery in July-August offer 395-397 $/t at the port. Traders hope that the decline of rape production in the EU will be offset by supplies from Ukraine and not from Canada. In the latter case, the price of rapeseed in Ukraine could fall by 10-15 $/t

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