Export demand and prices for soybeans in Ukraine increased again

After an active start at the beginning of the season, export demand for soybeans in Ukraine decreased at the end of October against the background of an increase in the supply of cheap American soybeans on the world market. But this week, demand and prices in Black Sea ports rose again.

 

In October, soybean exports from Ukraine increased 3 times compared to September to a record 675,000 tons, which was 20% higher than the previous record of 561,500 tons exported in October 2019. The increase in exports is due to the increase in demand for Ukrainian soybeans from of the EU and Turkey against the background of a decrease in prices for it in July - August.

 

In total, in 2024/25, Ukraine exported 918,000 tons of soybeans (which is 44% ahead of last year's pace), 47% of which went to the EU (a 54% increase compared to last year). Export of soybeans to Turkey increased by 10%. In addition, the share of deliveries to Pakistan in the total soybean exports increased to 12%.

 

During the week, purchase prices for GMO soybeans in ports increased by UAH 500-600/t to UAH 18,300-18,500/t or $380-385/t, while processors kept prices at UAH 18,000-18,200/t delivered to the factory , which gave exporters an advantage in the fight for volumes.

 

Prices for soybean meal are falling as its supply increases, so processors will soon "stock up" on meal and reduce the amount of soybean processing, because competition is much stronger in the world meal market than in the soybean market.

 

Export purchase prices for soybeans without GMOs in Black Sea ports remain at $450-455/t or UAH 21,000-21,500/t, and processors buy it at UAH 21,500-21,800/t with delivery to the factory.

 

According to Conab data, 53% of the planned area was sown with soybeans in Brazil on November 3 (48% last year), and favorable weather will allow sowing to be completed at the optimal time and to obtain a record harvest this season.

 

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange for the week rose by 3% to $365/t (-4% for the month) on forecasts of a decline in the US harvest.

 

On the eve of the release of the USDA report, the Reuters agency conducted a survey of analysts, according to which the estimate of the yield of soybeans in the United States was reduced compared to October by 0.3 to 52.8 bushels/acre.

 

The US presidential election will determine the future dynamics of soybean prices, as Republicans do not support subsidies for the production of biodiesel, which may lead to a decrease in demand for soybeans, corn and canola.