Export demand for soybeans in Ukraine is recovering, but prices remain under pressure from falling stock market quotations

After several weeks of almost complete absence of export demand for GMO soybeans, Ukrainian ports stepped up purchases, which supported prices.

Export demand prices for soybeans with GMOs in Black Sea ports increased by UAH 300-500/t to UAH 17,300-17,700/t or $365-375/t, while prices for soybeans without GMOs remained at UAH 19,000-19,500/t or $410-425/ton.

Demand for soybeans from processors remains low, as factories are stocked with soybean meal. Processors offer UAH 17,000-17,200/t for soybeans with GMOs, and UAH 18,500-19,000/t for soybeans without GMOs, including delivery to the factory.

Soybean prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from low prices for soybeans from South America, which are falling on forecasts of increased acreage and favorable weather for planting.

According to Conab data, 83.3% of the planned area was sown with soybeans in Brazil on November 24 (75% last year), and favorable rains will allow farmers to increase the sown area.

According to the forecast of the Secretariat of Agriculture of Argentina (SagyP), in 2024/25 MR, the area of soybeans in the country will grow compared to the previous season by 7.8% from 16.6 to 17.8 million hectares, which will be the largest indicator in the last 6 years. This is due to the improvement of the soil moisture level and the reduction of corn sowing areas. Currently, 36% of the planned area (+3% per week) is sown in the country.

January soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 1% for the week to $363/t, matching last month's level, although soybean oil quotes fell amid uncertainty over the fate of the biofuels program after the new US administration.