Export demand for corn in Ukraine remains high, although world prices are under pressure from offers of cheap American corn

Prices for corn in Ukraine slightly increased against the backdrop of reduced supply, but further growth will be limited by low corn quotes in the US.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for corn in the Black Sea ports this week increased by 50-100 hryvnias/t to 9200-9350 hryvnias/t or $195-198/t against the background of the devaluation of the hryvnia and the increase in feed wheat prices to 9600-9700 hryvnias/ton

In October, Ukraine significantly increased the export of corn, which as of October 28 amounted to 1.5 million tons, which was 60% higher than in October 2023. In total, 4.27 million tons of corn were exported in 2024/25 MR, which is 18% ahead of last year pace

In the U.S., corn was harvested in 81% of acreage on Oct. 27 thanks to favorable weather (64% 5-year average), adding to pressure on prices as farmers are forced to sell some grain due to a lack of storage space for this year's record soybean and corn crops.

December corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 1.8% for the week to $162/t (-4.3% for the month), while cash corn prices fell to $150/t, reducing farmer profits.

Accelerating plantings in Brazil and Argentina are easing the speculative pressure on quotes seen during September and October.

November corn futures in Paris, despite the reduction of crop forecasts in the EU, fell for the week by 2.9% to €205.5/t or $223/t, which will significantly reduce the demand for expensive Ukrainian corn.

In the October report, MARS experts reduced the forecasts of corn production in the EU in 2024 due to a decrease in yield from 6.85 to 6.66 t/ha, which would be 9% lower than the 5-year average.

According to the European Commission, in 2024/25 MR (as of October 25), the EU imported 6.38 million tons of corn (8% more than in the same period last year), in particular, 3.01 million tons from Ukraine, 1.2 million tons from USA, 1.17 million tons - from Brazil.

The South Korean processor MFG bought 130,000 tons of corn (from South America or South Africa) outside the tender at the price of $242 and $248/t C&F with delivery in November-December, which indicates the uncompetitiveness of Ukrainian corn prices, which are at the level of 215-220 $/t FOB.

The South American Crop Evaluation Committee (CEC) lowered the forecast for corn production in South Africa to 12.72 million tons (22.6% lower than last year), which may support global quotations in the second half of the season.