Export Demand for Corn in Ukraine Has Dropped Sharply

The robust export demand for Ukrainian corn in April and May facilitated the export of about 7 million tons of corn over the past two months. As of June 19, Ukraine has exported 28.19 million tons of corn since the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year (compared to 28.18 million tons on this date last year) with a USDA forecast of 26 million tons.

Purchase prices for corn have continued to decline over the past week (due to the closure of export programs by major traders) to around $170 per ton or 7800-7900 UAH per ton delivered to Black Sea ports, after reaching a seasonal peak of around $185-188 per ton. It is noteworthy that forward prices for new crop corn have also decreased from the previously offered $170-175 per ton to $160 per ton for delivery in October-November.

The decline in feed wheat prices and improved conditions for corn planting in Ukraine and the US will continue to pressure prices in the near future.

In Ukraine, 3.93 million hectares were sown with corn in 2024, representing 100.4% of the planned areas, and June rainfall along with moderate temperatures continue to improve crop conditions.

According to NASS, as of June 16, 100% of the planned corn areas in the US have been planted, with 93% emergence (95% last year). The rating for crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 2% over the week to 72%, compared to 55% last year.

Throughout the week, July corn futures on the Chicago exchange are trading around $177 per ton (-2.2% for the month), and December futures around $184 per ton (-3.4%), supported by forecasts of hot weather this week, which could negatively impact crop conditions.

According to Conab, as of June 15, the first corn crop in Brazil has been harvested on 88.1% of the areas (87% last year), and the second corn crop has been harvested on 13.1% of the areas (5.3% last year), which will increase export supplies of corn in the coming months. It is worth noting that S&P Global Commodity forecasts a sharp increase in corn use for bioethanol production in Brazil to 17 million tons, compared to 13.26 million tons in the 2023/24 marketing year, which will slightly reduce export supplies from Brazil.