Export prices for barley in Ukraine are increasing, but may turn downward in the second half of the season

Rising prices for feed wheat and corn and a depreciation of the hryvnia have increased export demand and prices for Ukrainian barley.

In two weeks, export demand prices for feed barley in Black Sea ports increased by 200-300 UAH/t to 9000-9100 UAH/t or 188-190 $/t, and in Danube ports - to 192-194 $/t, while prices for feed corn reached 204-206 $/t.

Traders are trying to purchase the necessary batches of barley, but producers are holding back sales, although prices remain higher than in previous seasons.

In the 2024/25 MY (as of December 15), Ukraine exported 1.9 million tons of barley, which is twice the corresponding figure last year (946 thousand tons), but in December exports decreased to 37 (72) thousand tons.

Demand prices for malting barley remained at UAH 8,800-9,000/t delivered to the mill for two weeks, against the backdrop of low malt prices and significant competition with European malt producers.

In the 2024/25 MY (as of December 16), the EU reduced barley exports by 34% compared to the previous season to 2.09 million tonnes, of which 512 thousand tonnes were delivered to Saudi Arabia, 306 thousand tonnes to China and 262 thousand tonnes to Algeria. The main exporters were Romania (1.2 million tonnes), France (398 thousand tonnes) and Germany (204 thousand tonnes).

Global demand for beer continues to decline, which, against the backdrop of forecasts of an increase in the EU barley harvest in the new season, will continue to lower prices in the second half of the season.

According to the forecast of the Coceral agency, in 2025, barley production in the EU and the UK will increase compared to 2024 from 57.3 to 59.7 million tons, in particular in the EU - from 50.4 to 51.9 million tons, and in the UK - from 7 to 7.8 million tons.

In the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine harvested 5.5 million tons of barley (5.8 million tons in 2023/24 MY), of which it will be able to export 2.5-3 million tons (2.5 million tons in the previous season).