Export prices for soybeans in Ukraine are growing in line with world quotations

In Ukraine, competition between soybean exporters and processors is intensifying against the backdrop of declining harvest forecasts. During the week, quotations on world exchanges exceeded the export prices of the demand for Ukrainian soybeans.

Export purchase prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine increased by another 5-10 $/t during the week to $375-380/t or UAH 17,300-17,500/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, while processors with delivery to the plant offer 16,000 - UAH 17,000/t.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans also increased in ports by $5-10/t to $410-420/t or UAH 19,700-20,000/t, but processors are willing to pay UAH 19,500-20,000/t with delivery to the factory. At DAP - the border of Poland and Hungary, demand prices increased by 5-10 €/t to 400-410 €/t.

In 2023/24, Ukraine exported a record 3.26 million tons of soybeans, which exceeded the previous record of 3.1 million tons in the 2022/23 season by 5%. Soybean supplies to Egypt increased by 2.1 times, while exports to the EU decreased by 22% and to Turkey by 26%.

November soybean futures in Chicago were up 4.5% for the week at $375/t (-1.8% for the month) amid deteriorating US crop conditions and forecasts of dry, hot weather over the next 2 weeks to reduce capacity harvest

The number of U.S. soybeans in fair or excellent condition for the week decreased 2% to 65% (53% last year). According to estimates by the StoneX agency, despite the decrease in the yield of soybeans in the United States, the total harvest will increase due to the increase in the planted area.

The export of soybeans from the USA in July increased compared to June by 11.62% to 1.495 million tons, which was 17.04% higher than in July 2023. At the same time, the export of meal decreased compared to last year by 6.1% to 1.018 million t.

According to the forecast of the Brazilian agency AgRural, in FY 2024/25 soybean planting area in the country will grow by 0.9% compared to the previous season to 114.66 million acres or 46.4 million hectares (the USDA estimates them at 116.9 million acres or 47.3 million hectares), and the total production will be 168 million tons.

In the central part of Brazil, dry weather persists with temperatures of 35-38 ^o C, which does not allow to start sowing soybeans, so farmers are waiting for the rainy season, which should start in September. The results of planting will determine whether forecasts of a record soybean harvest in the country, which are currently putting pressure on world prices, come to fruition.