Export prices for soybeans in Ukraine are increasing, despite the fall in stock market quotations

In Ukraine, high rapeseed prices and lower soybean and sunflower crop forecasts due to the heat in the south and east are supporting the starting prices for soybeans at a high level. Export purchase prices of new crop soybeans for delivery to Black Sea ports in October-November, after updating the minimum of $355-370/t in recent weeks, have risen to $385-390/t, despite the drop in exchange quotations. Exporters are actively contracting new crop soybeans, but farmers are slow to make deals due to crop uncertainty.

Processors offer UAH 16,000-17,500/t for soybeans of the old crop with delivery to the factory, but producers expect prices to rise to UAH 19,000-20,000/t following sunflower prices, which have already risen to UAH 19-20,000. with delivery to the factory.

November soybean futures in Chicago fell 7.8% during the month to $374/t on the back of an improvement in the state of the soybean crop and an improvement in the US harvest forecast. World prices remain under pressure from a decline in demand from China.

According to the State Customs Service, for 7 months of 2024, China reduced soybean imports by 1.3% to 58.33 million tons compared to the same period in 2023, although in July it imported 9.85 million tons of soybeans, which is 2.9% higher indicator of July 2023

The China National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that during July, soybean stocks at processing plants exceeded 7 million tons, and soybean meal stocks increased by 29% to 1.38 million tons, which is 86.5% higher than in July 2023. 8 million tons of soybeans will arrive in China's ports in August, and another 7.6 million tons in September.

Brazil exported a record 11.2 million tons of soybeans in July (9.7 million tons in July 2023) thanks to active deliveries to China.