Export prices for soybeans in Ukraine are falling in anticipation of increased supply

With the completion of the procedure for exporting soybeans and rapeseed without paying duties by producers, export prices for soybeans in Ukraine are declining. In September, traders offered premium prices for quick deliveries to cover the deficit volumes for export.

 

The failed law on customs duties, which came into force on September 4, has effectively paralyzed soybean exports from Ukraine. In the first month of the 2025/26 MY season, soybean exports amounted to only 78 thousand tons, compared to 246 thousand tons in September 2024. For comparison, in the 2024/25 MY season, a total of 4.130 million tons of soybeans were exported from Ukraine.

 

During the week, export prices for GMO soybeans decreased by $5–10/t to $388–390/t or UAH 16,800–17,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. The reason is the expectation of increased supply from producers who postponed sales until the official cancellation of the duty.

 

Prolonged rains in Ukraine have caused significant delays in the soybean and sunflower harvest, forcing processors to more actively purchase all oilseeds to ensure the smooth operation of plants.

 

As of October 3, 2025, soybeans in Ukraine were harvested on only 46% of the area or 1 million hectares, 2.22 million tons were threshed with a yield of 2.22 tons/hectare. Last year, on this date, 74% of the area was threshed and 4.28 million tons of soybeans were harvested with a yield of 2.17 tons/hectare.

 

During the week, processors increased prices for GMO soybeans by UAH 100–200/t — to UAH 16,500–17,000/t with delivery to the factory due to limited sunflower supply.

 

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans remain at UAH 18,000–18,200/t or $420–430/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Processors' demand for such soybeans remains low due to low prices for non-GMO soybean meal in the EU - due to an increase in the supply of local rapeseed meal.

 

According to the European Commission, soybean imports to the EU since the beginning of the 2025/26 season (July 1 - October 5) have decreased by 4% to 3.283 million tons, and soybean meal imports have decreased by 1% to 4.77 million tons. Rapeseed imports have decreased by 30% to 1.03 million tons. The main suppliers of soybeans to the EU are:

• Brazil — 1.85 million tons (last year — 2.150 million tons),
• USA — 970 thousand tons (last year — 909 thousand tons),
• Ukraine — 345 thousand tons (last year — 238 thousand tons).

 

Amid expectations of a resumption of soybean exports from the US to China, November soybean futures in Chicago rose 1.7% to $378.5/t (unchanged month-on-month) for the week, while high harvest rates in the US amid favorable dry weather continue to pressure the market.

 

The start of the rainy season in central Brazil is accelerating the pace of soybean planting for the new crop under favorable conditions, which will also put pressure on quotes. Weather forecasts indicate that October will be favorable for most regions of the country.

 

According to SAFRAS & Mercado, in the state of Paraná, about 18% of the expected 5.9 million hectares of soybeans have been sown, and in Mato Grosso, about 8% of the 12.83 million hectares.