Export prices for rapeseed in Ukraine are increasing in line with stock market quotations

Purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine increased during the week by UAH 1,000-1,300/t to UAH 23,000-23,500/t or $485-500/t with delivery to Black Sea ports against the backdrop of reduced sales by producers and low yields, which may reduce exports to new season

The demand prices for rapeseed deliveries to the EU in July-August also increased by €10/t to €465-470/t, but offers for deliveries by motor vehicles are insignificant, thanks to the high prices in the Black Sea ports.

As of July 19, 1.8 million tons of rapeseed were harvested in Ukraine from 779.1 thousand hectares or 55% of the area with a yield of 2.31 t/ha (2.47 t/ha on this date last year), so the total harvest can be 3 ,5-3.7 million tons in comparison with 4.7 million tons in 2023/24 MR.

International exporters with processing plants in Europe, such as Cargill, ADM and Vaiterra, are raising prices to deliver about 3 million tons of rapeseed from Ukraine to the EU. Ukrainian processors cannot offer competitive prices, so the volume of domestic processing in 2024/25 may decrease.

In 2023/24, the EU MR reduced rapeseed imports by 24% compared to the previous season, from 7.5 to 5.7 million tons, while supplies from Ukraine increased by 6% to 3.2 million tons, but decreased from Canada by 59 % to 100,000 tons, as well as from Australia by 43% to 1.9 million tons due to the reduction of the harvest in the country.

August rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange rose by 5.7% for the week to €493.75/t or $538/t (+6.9% for the month), and will remain at this level until the end of the harvest in Europe.

Improved weather in France will speed up the canola harvest, and yields are now in line with last year's, but farmers are holding back on sales so far.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 8.5% on the week (after falling 5% the previous week) to CAD 675/t or $490/t (+9.2% on the month) amid heat in the prairies, which can reduce yield potential. However, precipitation this week will reduce temperatures and plant stress.

Lower oil and soybean oil prices will hold back canola and rapeseed prices in the near term, especially amid deteriorating weather conditions in Australia and Canada.

December soybean oil futures in Chicago traded at $997/t during the week, while September Brent oil futures during this time fell by 1.7% to $82.4/barrel.

The decrease in soybean meal and oil prices in China, caused by active soybean imports, will also reduce the demand for oilseeds from the PRC in the near future.