Export prices for wheat in Ukraine are growing in line with world quotations

Last week, there was a speculative increase in wheat prices by 5.8-7.3% on world exchanges, caused by the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and dry weather in the east of Ukraine and the south-west of the Russian Federation. But at the end of the week, traders began to take profits and the quotations decreased, so the weekly growth was 1.4-3.6%.

 

Yesterday, December futures rose:

• by 0.5% to $217.7/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+1.4% for the week),
• by 0.9% to $221.6/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+3.3%).
• by 0.9% to $236.7/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+3.6%).

At the same time, December wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (+2.8%) decreased by €0.25/t to €228.5/t or $251/t.

 

At the same time, March futures are traded 2.8-5.4% more expensive than December futures, so in the second half of the season we should expect a further increase in wheat prices caused by unfavorable weather conditions for sowing in Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

 

Black Sea wheat prices were supported by Turkey's decision to ease the ban on wheat imports. But the new conditions are not very interesting for importers, because when purchasing 1 ton of wheat abroad, the processor must purchase 5.7 tons of wheat from the Turkish Grain Council (TMO).

 

In the east of Ukraine and the south-west of the Russian Federation, where winter wheat is mainly grown, significant precipitation has not occurred and is not forecast, but farmers continue sowing, hoping for rain. In Ukraine, as of October 1, 1.7 million hectares were sown with winter wheat (1.74 million hectares as of October 3, 2023), which corresponds to last year's pace.

 

In the Russian Federation, on October 4, 83.8 million tons of wheat were harvested from 93% of the areas, against the USDA forecast of 83 million tons.

 

In Ukraine, export purchase prices for the week increased by $5/t to UAH 9,600-9,700/t or $208-212/t for food and UAH 9,300-9,400/t or $200-204/t for fodder wheat with delivery to ports Black Sea.

 

In 2024/25 MR (as of October 7), Ukraine exported 6.5 million tons of wheat (3.61 million tons for this period last year), which is 40% of the export volume agreed by the Memorandum.

 

In the USA, 51% of the area is sown with winter wheat (52% on average for 5 years), but dry and warm weather in the next 2 weeks will allow to accelerate sowing.

 

Purchases of wheat on the world market are quite sluggish, so prices remain at a low level. Thus, the Saudi Arabian Food Safety Agency (GFSA) purchased 307,000 tons of wheat at a tender for delivery in December-January at a price of $265.78/t CFR, and the Algerian state grain agency OAIS announced an international tender for the purchase of 50,000 tons any food wheat of any origin with delivery in October - November.