Export prices for wheat in Ukraine are increasing against the background of recovery of world quotations

Wheat quotations on world exchanges continue to recover after the August drop to multi-year lows, and for the week they rose by another 0.5-3.1%, ignoring forecasts of a decrease in the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation, as well as high rates of wheat exports from the Russian Federation and the USA.

According to the MSG of the USA, during the week ending on September 5, the export of wheat from the country amounted to 587 thousand tons, and in general in the season it reached 6.35 million tons, which is 33.55% higher than last year's pace.

The IKAR agency reduced the forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2024/25 by 1.6 to 82.2 million tons, and for exports by 0.5 to 44 million tons due to unfavorable weather in the east of the country, where spring wheat harvest is coming to an end. As of September 6, 71 million tons of wheat were harvested in the Russian Federation from 21.5 million hectares or 72% of the area.

In August, the Russian Federation exported a record 5.6 million tons of wheat for this month, although export prices remained at a low level of $215-220/t FOB. In general, in 2024/25 MR, the export of wheat reached 9.4 million tons, which almost corresponds to the 9.6 million tons shipped in the same period last year.

December futures fell yesterday:

• by 0.3% to $211.55/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (+1.9% for the week),
• by 1.2% to $222.9/t - for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+1.2%).
• by 0.3% to €218/t or $240.5/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+0.5%).

At the same time, futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago rose by 0.3% to $208.9/t (+3.1%).

In Ukraine, export purchase prices during the week increased by $3-5/t to $200-205/t or UAH 9,300-9,400/t for food and $180/t or UAH 8,400-8,500/t for fodder wheat with delivery to ports Black Sea.

Farmers are busy harvesting late crops, which has reduced the supply of wheat, and traders are forced to raise prices to buy the volumes needed for export.

In 2024/25 MR (as of September 5), Ukraine exported 3.78 million tons of wheat, which is 72% higher than last year's corresponding figure. Analysts believe that at such rates, most of the 16.2 million tons of wheat determined by the Memorandum with the government will be exported by the end of 2024.