Ukraine's wheat export prices are supported by low supply and rising stock market quotes

Precipitation in Ukraine has allowed for increased sowing of winter crops, although it has delayed the harvesting of late crops. During this period, the supply of wheat is seasonally reduced, so the market is experiencing an increase in export demand and prices.

During the week, export demand prices for food wheat increased by 100-150 UAH/t to 10,300-10,400 UAH/t or $216-220/t, while those for feed wheat remained at the level of 9,500-9,700 UAH/t or $204-207/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Wheat exports from Ukraine accelerated and amounted to 1.7 million tons in the 26 days of September (compared to 2.18 million tons in the same period last year). In total, in the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported 4.34 million tons of wheat, which is 37% lower than the corresponding figure last year (5.963 million tons) and is 28% of the export forecast for the season.

As of September 23, 2025, only 0.67 million hectares were sown with winter wheat in Ukraine, which is 14% of the plan.

During September 19-25, wheat exports from the United States decreased by 21.4% compared to the previous week to 738.6 thousand tons, and in total for the season reached 9.54 million tons, which is 15.1% higher than last year's pace.

Winter wheat in the US has sown 34% of the projected area (36% on average over 5 years).

Stock market quotes for wheat increased during the week:

• by 1.7% to $190.9/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (-1.7% per month),
• by 1.2% to $186.8/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.6%),
• by 1% to $209.2/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.2%).

At the same time, wheat futures on the Paris Euronext exchange fell by 0.3% to €188.5/t or $221/t (-2.9%).

Rains forecast for eastern and southern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will improve harvest prospects in 2026 and reduce speculation about drought.