Export prices for corn in Ukraine rise, while global quotes remain under pressure from improving weather in South America

In recent months, the pace of corn exports from Ukraine has been slowing down due to a reduction in demand from the EU and increased competition with South American grain.

In 2024/25 MR (as of December 4), Ukraine exported 7.4 million tons of corn, which is 14% ahead of last year's pace (6.47 million tons).

Against the background of a decrease in offers from producers, the export demand prices for corn in Ukrainian Black Sea ports increased by $2-3/t during the week to $196-198/t or UAH 9,300-9,350/t.

At the same time, the decrease in the exchange rate of the euro and the price of corn on the EU market reduces the demand for Ukrainian corn from the traditional buyer, so domestic farmers should accelerate the sale of grain before the arrival of the main crop from South America.

March corn futures in Paris have been trading at €206.75/t or $217/t for a month amid increased EU production forecasts.

The European Commission increased the forecast of corn production in the EU from 58 to 59.6 million tons, which will be only 3% less than last year's harvest. The largest adjustment was made for Romania and France. At the same time, the forecast for corn imports in 2024/25 was increased compared to last month's estimates by 0.5 to 19.5 million tons, and the final stocks - by 2 to 19.4 million tons.

December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 1.4% on the week to $165/t (matching last month's level), but remain under pressure from increased crop forecasts in South America.

The Agroconsult agency increased the forecast of corn production in Brazil in 2024/25 MR to 132.7 million tons, and exports to 42 million tons, which will exceed the indicators of the previous season by 3.5% and 9.2%, respectively, as it is favorable for sowing corn the weather of the first crop and the active sowing of soybeans will allow sowing the corn of the second crop at the optimal time. As of December 1, 65% of the land in the country was sown with corn (60% last year).

According to the BAGE Grain Exchange, in Argentina 41.3% of the planned 6.3 million hectares are sown with corn, and 97% of the crops are in good or excellent condition, which allows us to hope for a good harvest.