Export prices for corn in Ukraine are rising amid possible increased demand from Turkey

Turkey's introduction of a quota for the import of 3 million tons of corn with a reduced duty of 5% supported prices for Ukrainian corn, which increased by $2-3/ton in a week. The quota is planned to be in effect from April 20 to July 31, 2026, which will provide an additional "window of opportunity" for the export of Ukrainian corn.

In Ukraine, export prices for corn increased by 150-200 UAH/t per week to 10,800-10,900 UAH/t or $217-219/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, which was also contributed to by the strengthening of the dollar against the hryvnia.

Corn exports from Ukraine for April 1-17 amounted to 1.36 million tons, which is 30% higher than the corresponding figure last year (1.05 million tons), and in total for the season reached 15.65 million tons, which is 15% lower than last year's pace (18 million tons).

Since the beginning of the week, corn quotes in Chicago have risen by 2.3%, almost recovering the previous week's decline caused by the improvement in the world balance. Prices are supported by the delay in sowing and increased demand for American corn, which remains the cheapest on the market. This, in turn, has stopped the decline in prices in Ukraine.

May corn futures in Chicago rose 2.7% to $178/t (-1.8% month-on-month) on the back of heavy rainfall in the US "corn belt" that could delay planting, while December futures are trading at $188.6/t, $10.6/t more expensive than May.

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of April 19, 11% of the planned area has been sown with corn in the United States, which is 2% higher than the 5-year average. Seedlings have been obtained on 4% of the area, which is 2% higher than usual. In addition, precipitation and rising temperatures forecast for next week will contribute to the acceleration of planting and improving crop conditions.

The pace of corn exports from the US will remain high, and for April 9-16 exports increased by 2.9% to 1.67 million tons, in line with the previous week, and in total for the season (since September 1) reached 51.71 million tons, which is 31.8% higher than the corresponding figure last year. To reach the projected level, about 1.6 million tons per week need to be exported by the end of the season.

Global nitrogen fertilizer prices continue to rise amid the war with Iran and the blockade of the Persian Gulf, which will increase the cost of corn in the new season. Therefore, we expect a gradual increase in corn prices, although importers are still restraining purchases, and the supply remains quite high.

On Friday, April 17, the Tunisian Grain Agency (ODC) canceled a tender to purchase 25,000 tons of feed corn due to excessively high bid prices, Reuters reported. The lowest price ($266.65/ton C&F) was offered by the European company Ameropa.