Export prices for corn in Ukraine are decreasing following stock market quotes

Yesterday's 15-18% drop in oil prices, caused by hopes for a quick end to the war in the Middle East, led to a speculative decline in corn exchange prices, which accordingly increased pressure on export prices in Ukraine.

 

May corn futures in Chicago fell 1.3% yesterday to $175/t (-1.3% for the week, -1.3% for the month). They are further pressured by expectations of reduced consumption forecasts and increased inventories in the new USDA report.

 

June corn futures on the Paris exchange fell 1.7% yesterday to €205.5/t or $240/t (-1.7% for the week, 0% for the month).

 

In 2025/26, the EU imported only 9 million tons of corn out of a projected 19.5 million tons, of which 40% came from Brazil, 30% from the US, and only 25% from Ukraine, although Ukraine was the EU's main corn supplier before the tariffs. Given the large stocks of cheap feed wheat, the import forecast may be adjusted.

 

In Ukraine, export prices for corn remained at $214-216/t during the week, but hryvnia prices fell by UAH 50-100/t to UAH 10,650-10,700/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, amid the decline in the dollar exchange rate.

 

The supply of corn on the market is increasing, but traders are noticing a decrease in export demand from the Middle East and North Africa.

 

Demand prices for corn from the EU remain at 194-195 €/t or 225-227 $/t FCA - European wagons at the western border, which, taking into account transshipment, corresponds to the price level in ports.

 

In Argentina, as of March 27, corn has been threshed on 15% of the area (5% last year), and a wave of precipitation is improving the condition of late corn crops, so harvest forecasts remain at 52-62 million tons compared to 50 million tons in the previous season.

 

Offer prices for Ukrainian corn on a FOB basis - Black Sea ports decreased to $229-230/t FOB, and with delivery to Turkish ports - to $252-255/t CIF due to increased competition with South American corn.

 

Today, the USDA's updated world balance for corn and other crops will be released, in which global consumption and exports are expected to decline, which will increase pressure on quotes.

 

Rains in Brazil are helping the second crop of corn to develop, but rainfall will be less in the second half of April.