Export prices for corn in Ukraine have increased, although they remain under pressure from declining demand

A sharp decline in oil quotes by 14% in a week is increasing pressure on corn quotes in Chicago, which is leading to a decrease in export prices and demand for corn in Ukraine.

Over the past week, July corn futures in Chicago fell 3% to $182.4/t (-1.5% month-on-month), but December futures are still trading $9/t higher on expectations of rising costs and a lower US harvest.

Favorable weather in the USA and high rates of corn sowing are creating a good harvest potential, which is also putting pressure on stock quotes. An additional factor putting pressure on prices was the news that experts from the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange BAGE increased the forecast for corn production in Argentina this season from 61 to 64 million tons, which significantly exceeds the USDA's May forecast (59 million tons) and will lead to increased competition with Ukrainian corn in June - August.

In addition, the weather in Brazil is also conducive to the development of a second crop of corn, which will hit the markets in August, so Ukrainian farmers need to sell their products earlier.

Amid rising oil prices and wheat stock market quotes , corn purchase prices at tenders in South Korea have also increased, indicating buyers' willingness to pay higher prices for the new crop.

In Ukraine, the weather is conducive to the development of corn crops, with 94% of the projected area or 4.15 million hectares sown as of May 22, 2026.

Demand for corn in ports from exporters is still maintained, but demand from Turkey is gradually decreasing, so export prices for corn in Ukraine increased by 150-200 UAH/t to 11,500-11,550 UAH/t or $229-231/t with delivery to Black Sea ports over the week, although last week buyers offered premium prices of up to $233/t for fast deliveries.

Corn exports from Ukraine for the first 25 days of May amounted to 1.62 million tons (compared to 1.92 million tons in May 2025), and in total in the 2025/26 season reached 18.6 million tons (20.47 million tons last year). The main buyers remain Turkey - 532.3 thousand tons, Italy - 197.4 thousand tons, the Netherlands - 146.3 thousand tons, Israel - 111.8 thousand tons, Korea - 104.2 thousand tons, Belgium - 88.1 thousand tons, Spain - 83 thousand tons.

The rate of corn exports from Ukraine is gradually decreasing, and the market is counting on an increase in transitional balances, which will allow a comfortable entry into the new season. Turkey remained the main buyer of corn in May, but the share of supplies to the EU, Mediterranean countries and Asia is significant. It is worth considering that competition with South American corn will first intensify for the most distant buyers, so summer forward premiums for Ukrainian corn will be limited.

Yesterday was a holiday in the US, so the planting and crop status reports will be released today, and after good rainfall last week, they could be positive for the market.