Ukrainian exporters and processors have increased demand for rapeseed, so farmers need to accelerate sales as stock quotes remain under pressure

In recent weeks, Ukraine has seen an increase in rapeseed purchases, due to increased demand from exporters who are completing the formation of export batches, as well as processors who have accelerated purchases amid rising vegetable oil prices.

Export purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine increased by $5/t to $545-550/t or UAH 24,000-25,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports in a week, but some traders stopped purchases, having completed the formation of export batches. Processors offer UAH 24,000-24,500/t for rapeseed with delivery to the factory, and are not ready to raise prices against the backdrop of stable prices for rapeseed oil in the EU at the level of EUR 1,050-1,060/t.

But a 5% drop in oil prices in one day and a decline in rapeseed stock quotes are putting pressure on export prices, especially against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in rapeseed supply.

According to Spike Brokers, in January 2026, Ukraine exported about 130 thousand tons of rapeseed and 50 thousand tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 100 thousand tons of seeds. That is, together with the country's domestic balance in January, more than 230 thousand tons of rapeseed were withdrawn.

As of the end of January, estimated rapeseed residues in Ukraine were estimated at approximately 600,000 tons, and supply will increase in the spring when farmers assess the condition of winter rapeseed crops after overwintering.

On the Paris exchange, traders have switched to May rapeseed futures, which are trading €5/t cheaper at €473.75/t or $559.5/t, while August futures are trading €19/t cheaper at €454.75/t, so for now we can only expect a price decline against the backdrop of a spring increase in supply.

Delayed rapeseed supplies from Ukraine and Australia to the EU supported prices in January, but the picture should change in February.

The pressure on rapeseed prices will increase as the German Bundesrat did not support the committee's recommendation to increase the share of crop-based biofuels in the energy balance from 4.4 to 5.8% and to implement RED III. The proposed amendments will now be submitted to the Bundestag for a first reading on February 25.

March canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange traded at CAD 646.9/t or $473/t during the week, up 5.9% in the month after China promised to resume purchases from March 1. Canada has significant canola stocks and hopes for increased exports, but if this does not happen, for example due to China's purchases of cheap soybeans from Brazil, Canadian farmers will have to compete with Australian canola for the European market.