Grain export from Ukraine in 2021/22 MR reached 61.52 million tons, and in 2022/23 MR will decrease by half

Russia's military aggression continues to destroy the economy of Ukraine, in particular the agricultural sector, and the blocking of exports causes significant losses to farmers and leads to a reduction in production.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy reports that in 2021/22 FY Ukraine exported 61.52 million tons of grain and oil crops for a total amount of $22.2 billion, in particular:

• wheat – 18.7 million tons worth $4.8 billion,
• corn - 23.54 million tons for $5.8 billion,
• barley - 5.74 million tons for $1.3 billion,
• rapeseed – 2.7 million tons for $1.7 billion,
• sunflower – 1.09 million tons for $616 million,
• soybeans – 1.1 million tons for $641 million,
• rye - 161.5 thousand tons,
• buckwheat - 100 thousand tons,
• millet - 100 thousand tons,
• sorghum – 67.6 thousand tons,
• flax - 32 thousand tons,
• oats – 12.6 thousand tons,
• rice - 4.1 thousand tons,
• other oil crops - 24 thousand tons.

In addition, the following were exported:

• sunflower oil – 4.3 million tons for $5.8 billion,
• sunflower meal - 3.4 million tons for $960 million,
• soybean meal - 421 thousand tons for $230 million.

Experts of the Ukrainian Grain Association increased the forecast of grain and oil crops production in Ukraine in 2022 from 66.5 to 69.4 million tons compared to previous estimates due to improved weather conditions for corn, although the area before harvesting will remain at 19.1 million hectares . According to their estimates, in the event of an increase in the capacity of border crossings, the export of grain from Ukraine in 2022/23 may reach 31.5 million tons, while under current conditions it will amount to no more than 25-30 million tons.

Transitional reserves in 2021/22 MR amounted to 25.9 million tons, and in 2022/23 MR will reach 36.6 million tons according to optimistic forecasts, and 48 million tons according to pessimistic forecasts.

According to UZA estimates, the wheat harvest in Ukraine will decrease compared to last year from 33 to 20.8 million tons, which will triple the amount of domestic consumption. Transitional stocks of wheat of the old harvest amount to more than 10 million tons, so the export of wheat in 2022/23 may also reach 10 million tons.

Compared to last year, barley production will decrease from 10.1 to 6.6 million tons, and exports will amount to 2 million tons. Corn harvest will decrease from 37.6 to 27.3 million tons, and exports will reach 10 million tons.

Sunflower production will fall from 16.9 to 9 million tons, which, taking into account temporary reserves at the level of 5.8 million tons, will allow exporting 6 million tons. Sunflower oil processing will decrease from 10 to 7 million tons.

Compared to last year, the rapeseed harvest will decrease from 2.9 to 1.65 million tons, and exports will amount to 1.45 million tons. Soybean production will decrease from 3.5 to 2.2 million tons, of which it will be possible to export approximately 1.8 million tons