Grain exports from Ukraine and Russia almost reached projected volumes

Ukraine and Russia gradually slow down the export of grain in 2019, but the shipped quantities almost reached projected levels.

Ukraine 2019/20 MG as of 5 June exported 55,256 million tons of crops and legumes compared with 50,144 million tonnes in 2018/19 and Mr 39,925 million tonnes in 2017/18 MG.

in Particular, wheat was exported 20,187 million tonnes with an agreed Memorandum between the Ministry and traders for the current season 20.2 million tons, while the USDA has projected exports at the level of 20.5 million tons. Barley exported 4,925 mln tonnes, maize – 29, 03 million tonnes from the USDA's predicted 32 million tonnes, flour – 318 thousand tons.

Russia 2019/20 MG as of June 4, exported 38.9 million tonnes of grain, in particular:

the

wheat – 31.7 million tonnes from the USDA projected 33.5 million tons,

corn – 3.4 million tons while the USDA forecast 4.2 million tons.

• of barley, 3.6 million tonnes,

In the June WASDE report forecast of wheat production for Ukraine in 2020/21 MG reduced by 1.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons (while local experts estimate it at 24.3-2 million tons), Russia – left at 77 million tonnes In 2019 the country gathered to 29.2 million tonnes and 73.6 million tonnes of wheat, respectively.

Assessment of wheat export from Ukraine in the new season WASDE lowered by 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million tons, while Russia has increased by 1 million tonnes to 36 million tonnes.

the Experts of APK-inform believe that in 2020/21 MG grain production in Ukraine will decrease compared with the previous year by 9% to 68.7 million tonnes, including wheat – 13%, barley – by 23%, maize by 2%.

In the new season wheat, the market expects increased global competition, particularly in the black sea region. The reduction of the yield in Ukraine and the EU, especially in Romania, will allow Russia to increase exports. A good harvest in Australia will press black sea wheat in the Asian markets, which it occupied in recent years due to the Australian crop failures caused by drought. The sharp increase in wheat production in India activates the export balances, which will increase competition in the markets of Asia.

Another determining factor for world grain trade will be the purchasing power of major importers that will be affected by the introduction of new quarantine measures during the second wave of the pandemic Covid-19.