Exports of soybean meal from the USA will reach a record level in 2024/25 MR

According to US MSG estimates, exports of soybean meal from the country in 2024/25 FY will break the record for the third consecutive season and reach 15.7 million tons (+9.5% compared to 2023/24 FY), despite the resumption of supplies from the world's largest meal exporter Argentina after a poor harvest last year saw meal exports fall to an 18-year low. The increase in soybean processing also contributes to the increase in exports.

 

In Argentina, 50% of the soybean crop has already been threshed, and production is expected to be nearly double last year's output, although slightly lower than expected. As a result, exports of Argentine crushed stone and meal will grow by 17% and 18% in FY 2023/24, respectively, and by another 13% and 12% in FY 2024/25, to a 4-year high.

 

At the same time, the reduction of competition from Brazil, which will actively supply soybeans to China in 2025, will contribute to the growth of meal exports from the USA.

 

In recent years, major buyers of soybean meal, especially countries in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, have significantly increased soybean processing capacity, which will reduce their need for imported meal. But American meal will be attractive to importers due to its low price, as will South American meal.

 

According to the US MSG forecast, in 2024/25 MR, the average price of soybean meal will decrease compared to the previous season by 13% to $330/t. On Wednesday in Chicago, futures traded at 371.7 futures, which is 14% lower than last year's level, but 15% higher than the annual low.

 

In the US, the share of soybean processing in the total volume of its consumption is gradually increasing, and in FY 2024/25 it will reach 56%, according to MSG estimates, which will be the highest indicator since FY 2007/08. China's increased purchases of soybeans from Brazil have led the U.S. to reduce soybean exports and increase its processing.

 

If starting from FY 2017/18 and continuing to FY 2020/21, soybean processing volumes in the US exceeded MSG forecasts, then in the next three seasons they slightly decreased. In April, US soybean processing among NOPA members (which account for 95% of US soybean production) fell short of a monthly record for the first time this season and amounted to 166 million bushels, against a forecast of 183 million bushels.

 

Last month, several plants were shut down for routine maintenance, and refining margins were at their lowest in years, potentially weighing on output. In the current season, soybean prices have fallen to multi-year lows, and soybean oil has suffered due to negative dynamics in the renewable fuel market.