EU wheat exports are declining amid low demand from importers, who are increasing supplies from Australia and Argentina

According to the European Commission, in the 2024/25 MY (as of March 6), EU countries reduced wheat exports compared to the previous season by 36% to 15.06 million tons due to high prices for European grain and strong competition from Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

The main buyer of European wheat remains Nigeria with a share of 15%, while traditional importers — Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt — have halved supplies from the EU this season, increasing purchases from the Russian Federation.

Wheat imports to the EU in the 2024/25 MY decreased by 18% to 7.2 million tons, of which 65.3% were supplied from Ukraine (70.4% last year), which remains the main supplier of wheat to the EU.

In the March report, USDA experts lowered the estimate of wheat exports from the EU by 1 million tons to 27 million tons (38 million tons in 2023/24 MY), but even this figure looks unlikely. If the export rate does not increase, then by the end of the season it will be possible to ship about 7-8 million tons more, so total exports will be 22-23 million tons. The forecast for wheat imports to the EU has also been reduced by 0.5 million tons to 10.5 million tons (12.6 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

FranceAgriMer analysts have lowered their forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2024/25 MY by 200,000 tonnes to 3.2 million tonnes (10.2 million tonnes in 2023/24 MY) amid low grain loading rates at the country's ports. Demand for French wheat from China and Algeria remains low, and the main sales markets are currently Morocco and African countries.

May wheat futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell 7.3% during the month to €223.5/t, but the dollar price remained at $243.1/t due to the sharp rise in the euro against the dollar, which continues to restrain exports.

The Tunisian Grain Agency (ODC) purchased 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat, likely of European origin, in a tender on 13 March, for delivery from 10 April to 20 May at a price of $269-270/t CFR, indicating the start of more aggressive sales by European traders. 16 companies participated in the tender, with Casillo offering the lowest price ($268.67/t CFR for a 25,000-t lot).

The reduction in wheat exports from the Russian Federation indicates a decline in demand for it after prices rose to $248-250/t FOB. During March 7-13, only 92.72 thousand tons of wheat were exported from the Russian Black Sea ports, which is a multi-year minimum. In total, exports in March may decrease to 1.5 million tons compared to 4.5 million tons in March 2024.

Increased wheat supplies from Canada, Australia, and Argentina are putting pressure on world prices, which are at their highest levels in the EU, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation.