Palm oil exports from Malaysia and Indonesia rose sharply in March, which will continue to reduce demand for sunflower oil

According to the International Shipping Agency (ITS), in March Malaysia increased its palm oil exports by 42.7% compared to February from 1.15 million tonnes to 1.64 million tonnes, which will reduce pressure on inventories and support prices. For April, Malaysia is raising the base price and export duty on palm oil by 9%. The base price for crude oil will be 3,935.19 ringgit/t or $999.29/t.

Since the beginning of the year, the price of palm oil has increased by 8% to $1,159/t, OleoScope reports, and the Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the price to remain at $1,125/t and above in the near future.

According to the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, in January-February the country exported 4.54 million tons of crude and refined palm oil (36.3% more than in January-February 2025) worth $4.69 billion. In February, 2.3 million tons of palm oil were exported worth $2.4 billion. Export data does not include palm kernel oil, oleochemical products and biodiesel.

Indonesia is the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil. Production is 45 million tons per year and exports are about 16 million tons.

India may see its demand for sunflower oil decline by 10% in 2026 due to geopolitical instability in West Asia and rising logistics costs, which will force consumers to look for cheaper alternatives.

Despite the expected reduction in volumes, Indian refiners' revenues will remain stable as the decline in demand is offset by higher prices, which are ultimately passed on to consumers. The Indian sunflower oil industry is heavily dependent on imports of raw materials, mainly from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, making the market vulnerable to global disruptions.

The war with Iran has forced ships to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, increasing shipping times and costs. Insurance premiums are also rising, pushing up the cost of sunflower oil for Indian refiners.

In stores, prices for refined sunflower oil have risen from Rs 150/litre in January to Rs 170-175/litre, forcing consumers to switch to cheaper oils. India's annual consumption of edible oils is 25-26 million tonnes, of which sunflower oil accounts for 12-14%.