Experts again lowered the estimates of the sunflower harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, as well as forecasts of world exports

Experts of APC-Inform have reduced the forecast of sunflower production in Ukraine to 14.2 million tons, which will be 6% less than last year's figure due to the low yield.

As of September 6, 1.39 million tons of sunflower were threshed from 780.8 thousand ha or 16% of the area in Ukraine with a yield of 1.78 t/ha, while last year at the start of harvesting, the yield was 1.86 t/ha.

The agency ProZerno reduced the forecast of the sunflower harvest in the Russian Federation by 0.6 to 15 million tons (17.25 million tons last year), and ICAR experts reduced their estimates of the harvest by 0.6 to 15.4 million tons due to poor yields in the south and severe delays vegetation in the Volga region, where the sunflower may not ripen before harvesting.

According to Oil World estimates, in 2024/25 FY, due to the reduction in production, global sunflower exports will not exceed 2.36 million tons (2.69 million tons in 2023/24 FY), which will be the lowest figure in the last 9 years. Thus, compared to the previous season, sunflower exports from the EU will decrease from 460 to 330 thousand tons, from Moldova - from 470 to 340 thousand tons, from Ukraine - from 310 to 130 thousand tons, while exports from Kazakhstan will increase from 190 to 250 thousand tons.

A reduction in sunflower production will complicate the work of processing plants, in particular in the EU and Turkey. Therefore, Oil World analysts predict that in 2024/25 the amount of sunflower processing in the EU will decrease compared to the previous season by 0.4 to 8.8 million tons.

Against the backdrop of a shortage of sunflower offers, processors in Ukraine and the Russian Federation are forced to maintain purchase prices at a high level to ensure the fulfillment of current contracts for the supply of meal and oil.

However, further growth in sunflower prices will be limited by the decline in global quotations for vegetable oils, caused by the drop in oil prices, as well as low prices for feed grain and, accordingly, for meal.