Experts have lowered the forecast for the world sugar surplus in the 2026/27 MY, but prices are falling

Czarnikow experts have reduced the forecast for the world sugar surplus in the 2026/27 MY by 300 thousand tons to 1.1 million tons compared to March estimates due to the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon on sugarcane production in India, Thailand, and Brazil, although in February they estimated a surplus of 3.4 million tons.

The forecast for world sugar production in the 2026/27 MY has been reduced by 200 thousand tons to 180.4 million tons compared to March estimates, and the consumption forecast has been increased by 100 thousand tons to 179.3 million tons.

El Niño usually brings hot, dry weather to India and Thailand, which negatively affects sugarcane harvests. In Brazil, the phenomenon leads to excess rainfall, which slows down the rate of cane processing.

According to Czarnikow, in 2025/26, world sugar production will reach 184.1 million tons, the second highest in history. In Thailand, it will increase from 11.5 to 12 million tons, and in India - almost 28 million tons. The forecast for the world sugar surplus in 2025/26 has been reduced compared to February estimates from 8.3 to 5.8 million tons.

The reduction in sugar production is due to an increase in the processing of sugar cane into ethanol amid rising prices for oil and petroleum products.

After a sharp increase in March caused by the war with Iran, world sugar prices fell to multi-year lows in April.

Since the beginning of April, May futures for white sugar No. 5 on the London Stock Exchange have decreased by 5% to $424/t (-8.5% per month, +4.7% since the start of the war), and for cane sugar No. 11 in New York – by 11.5% to $306/t (-10.5% per month, -2.9% since the start of the war).

In Ukraine, after the closure of the EU market, sugar prices remain under pressure from declining demand, but following world quotes, domestic prices have increased to 21,000-23,000 UAH/t.