USDA experts again lowered the forecast for world corn production

For the eighth month in a row, USDA experts cut forecasts for global corn production and consumption, but stock prices continued to fall amid an increase in estimates of ending stocks.

Compared to the February estimates, the new corn balance for the 2022/23 MR has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was reduced by 0.6 mln t to 305.69 mln t (292.54 mln t in FY 2021/22 and 306.37 mln t in FY 2020/21) as a result of balance adjustments for FY 2021/22.
• The global production forecast was reduced by 3.84 million tons to 1,147.52 million tons (1,217 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 1,129 million tons in 2020/21 FY), in particular for Argentina – by 7 to 70 (49.5) million t, although analysts estimated the harvest at 43 million tons, and the local exchange in Rosario (RGE) lowered the estimate to 35 million tons against the background of a prolonged drought. For Brazil, the forecast was left at the level of 125 (116) million tons, and for India it was increased by 2.61 to 34.61 million tons based on official data.
• The estimate of world consumption was reduced by 5.62 million tons to 1,156.75 million tons (1,202.5 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 1,143.29 million tons in 2020/21 FY).
• The global export forecast was reduced by 6.36 million tons to 174.71 million tons (204.7 million tons in FY 2021/22), in particular for Argentina by 7 to 28 million tons, the USA by 1.91 to 46.99 million tons t, while the estimate for India was increased by 1.2 to 4 million tons, Ukraine – by 1 to 23.5 million tons, and Paraguay.
• The estimate of corn imports was reduced for Turkey by 0.4 to 2.1 million tons, Iran – by 0.3 to 8.2 million tons, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia and Egypt by 0.2 to 9 million tons, Morocco – by 0 .2 million tons, while for China it was left at the level of 18 million tons.
• The estimate of world final reserves was increased by 1.18 million tons to 296.46 million tons (306.3 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 293.29 million tons in 2020/21 FY), in particular for Ukraine - by 1 to 2, 39 million tons, Brazil - by 0.5 to 7.05 million tons, which will be partially compensated by the increase in reserves in India. In comparison with last month, stocks of corn abroad decreased.

May futures for corn in Chicago yesterday fell by 1.4% to $246.2/t (-8.5% for the month).